Uncertain Judgements: Eliciting Experts' Probabilities (Statistics in Practice) - First edition

EAN (ISBN-13): 9780470029992
ISBN (ISBN-10): 0470029994
Hardcover
Paperback
Publishing year: 2006
Publisher: Wiley
321 Pages
Weight: 0,660 kg
Language: eng/Englisch

Book in our database since 2007-10-18T13:49:12-04:00 (New York)
Detail page last modified on 2023-06-22T03:04:19-04:00 (New York)
ISBN/EAN: 9780470029992

ISBN - alternate spelling:
0-470-02999-4, 978-0-470-02999-2
Alternate spelling and related search-keywords:
Book author: rakow, paul jeremy, tim, david anthony, oakley, danesh, richard paul, jenkinson, caitlin buck
Book title: uncertain judgements eliciting experts probabilities, practice statistics

---

Information from Publisher

Author: Anthony O'Hagan; Caitlin E. Buck; Alireza Daneshkhah; Richard Eiser; Paul Garthwaite; David Jenkinson; Jeremy Oakley; Tim Rakow
Title: Statistics in Practice; Uncertain Judgements - Eliciting Experts' Probabilities
Publisher: Wiley; John Wiley & Sons
338 Pages
Publishing year: 2006-07-21
Weight: 0,572 kg
Language: English
71,90 € (DE)
Not available (reason unspecified)
143mm x 223mm x 26mm

BB; Hardcover, Softcover / Mathematik/Wahrscheinlichkeitstheorie, Stochastik, Mathematische Statistik; Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und Statistik; Bayesian Analysis; Bayessches Verfahren; Bayes-Verfahren; Medical Science; Medical Sciences Special Topics; Medizin; Methoden der Daten- u. Stichprobenerhebung; Spezialthemen Medizin; Statistics; Statistik; Survey Research Methods & Sampling; Spezialthemen Medizin; Methoden der Daten- u. Stichprobenerhebung; Bayes-Verfahren

Elicitation is the process of extracting expert knowledge about some unknown quantity or quantities, and formulating that information as a probability distribution. Elicitation is important in situations, such as modelling the safety of nuclear installations or assessing the risk of terrorist attacks, where expert knowledge is essentially the only source of good information. It also plays a major role in other contexts by augmenting scarce observational data, through the use of Bayesian statistical methods. However, elicitation is not a simple task, and practitioners need to be aware of a wide range of research findings in order to elicit expert judgements accurately and reliably. Uncertain Judgements introduces the area, before guiding the reader through the study of appropriate elicitation methods, illustrated by a variety of multi-disciplinary examples. This is achieved by: * Presenting a methodological framework for the elicitation of expert knowledge incorporating findings from both statistical and psychological research. * Detailing techniques for the elicitation of a wide range of standard distributions, appropriate to the most common types of quantities. * Providing a comprehensive review of the available literature and pointing to the best practice methods and future research needs. * Using examples from many disciplines, including statistics, psychology, engineering and health sciences. * Including an extensive glossary of statistical and psychological terms. An ideal source and guide for statisticians and psychologists with interests in expert judgement or practical applications of Bayesian analysis, Uncertain Judgements will also benefit decision-makers, risk analysts, engineers and researchers in the medical and social sciences.