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1977, ISBN: 9780471908036
ID: 1579759
Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index Making Decisions Lindley, Dennis V. / Lindley, D. V., John Wiley & Sons
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ISBN: 9780471908036
Making Decisions Second Edition D.V. Lindley Formerly Professor of Statistics, University College London This book looks at the problems involved in decision-making and argues that there is only one logical way to make a decision. By the use of three basic principles--assigning probabilities to the uncertain events; assigning utilities to the possible consequences; and choosing that decision that maximizes expected utility--decisions can be reached more efficiently and with less disagreement. It shows that only maximization of expected utility leads to sensible decision-making. This extensively revised second edition uses only elementary mathematics and will be of interest to all those concerned with decision-making and its consequences. Since his retirement from University College London in 1977 Professor Lindley has held visiting appointments at Berkeley, University of Florida, George Washington University, University of Sao Paulo, University of Wisconsin, Monash University, Australia, and University of Canterbury, New Zealand. Contents * Decisions and uncertain events * A numerical measure for uncertainty * The laws of probability * A numerical measure for consequences * The utility of money * Bayes' Theorem * Value of information * Decision trees * The assessment of probabilities and utilities * An appreciation Appendix Answers to exercises Glossary of Symbols Subject Index Making Decisions Lindley, Dennis V. / Lindley, D. V.
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ISBN: 9780471908036
ID: 9780471908036
Making Decisions Making-Decisions~~D-V-Lindley Science/Tech>Statistics & Probability>Statistics & Probability Hardcover, Wiley
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Details of the book - Making Decisions
EAN (ISBN-13): 9780471908036
ISBN (ISBN-10): 0471908037
Hardcover
Publishing year: 1977
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons
Book in our database since 12.03.2008 19:57:36
Book found last time on 21.06.2016 15:21:14
ISBN/EAN: 0471908037
ISBN - alternate spelling:
0-471-90803-7, 978-0-471-90803-6
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